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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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