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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.